M113:ModelingwithProbability
What makes a game fair? How can we predict the likelihood of a candidate winning an election or a team winning a championship? Nature, society, business, and everyday life are full of situations involving uncertainty and randomness. Probability models enable us to go beyond guesswork and handle these situations quantitatively.
In M113 Modeling with Probability, you will:
• Calculate and estimate probabilities using data, and interpret results to make predictions, analyze strategies, and inform decisions
• Use tools like tables, tree diagrams, and counting techniques to apply the rules of probability
• Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables, approximate conditional probabilities, and calculate expected value
• Use technology to simulate random processes and approximate probabilities
Examples of careers that use M113 concepts: meteorology, risk management, nursing research, public policy, and finance.
Associated Badges
Prerequisites for This Badge
Concepts of fractions, ratio, and percentages
Badges This Is a Prerequisite For
Learning Goals
Content & Practice Expectations
Each badge framework describes the mathematics skills and understandings that students will need to demonstrate to earn each badge through a set of Content & Practice Expectations (CPEs).
Alignment Guidance
Guidance for aligning badge standards (CPEs) to your existing curriculum and mathematical standards can be found in the documents shared below.
Curricular Resources
Learning Activities
These resources provide learning activities that can supplement traditional coursework.
Learning Principles
Descriptions of the XQ Math Badging Learning Principles, which should undergird instructional materials.
M113 Learning Activities Teacher-Facing.pdf
Teacher guide for the sample activities provided with this badge.
M113 Learning Activities Student-Facing.docx
Student-facing worksheets provided for classroom implementation of the sample learning activities.
Assessments
Introduction to Badge Assessments
This document provides an overview of the different badging forms of assessment.
Pre-/Post-Task
These tasks should be administered before instruction begins on a new badge and again as badge instruction comes to a close. The pre-task gives students an opportunity to see where their learning is headed, identify any relevant background knowledge or skills they already possess, and establish a starting point for the badge. The post-task provides an opportunity for students to demonstrate what they have learned and compare their new thinking to their original responses. Together, these tasks help students recognize their growth over time while providing teachers with meaningful information to guide instruction and support learning.
Performance Assessments
Each task has a teacher guide, scoring guidance, and student versions (docx format) in English and Spanish.
Portfolio Resources
A portfolio of evidence consists of student-produced artifacts that demonstrate proficiency against a badge’s CPEs. The portfolio development process involves students selecting and reflecting on artifacts that showcase their understanding of badge CPEs, followed by iterative teacher review and student-teacher conferencing until the work demonstrates proficiency.
Professional Learning Resources
Download a sample Professional Learning presentation for this badge that you may copy and customize to suit your needs. When available, samples of student work are provided for discussion.
Baseline Professional Learning
A modifiable presentation to introduce teachers to key concepts of math badging, illustrated through sample math tasks for this badge.
Baseline Professional Learning - Student Work
A collection of student work samples with teacher feedback, to aide in assessment of student learning for this badge.